Will Jose Bautista have a shot at the American League MVP?

I keep up with baseball on a daily and yearly basis. I seem to always make good predictions but they are just that.. Predictions. But every year.. There's always a player that tears it up the first couple of months and then cools down. Nothing against jose bautista.. But he will not win the mvp. Two reasons.. First, although he is hitting for a high average now.. That's not his thing. He's a homerun/rbi guy. But the main reason is that he's not on a winning team. People don't like to lean towards this reasoning but look at history. I think Andre Dawson is the only player to win MVP from a losing team. And since the blue jays are in a stacked division that will most likely produce a world series caliber team like yankees/red sox/rays... The blue jays will most likely finish fourth in that division. And since the american league is already stacked with stars that have similar numbers to him but on winning teams.. Those players will get more votes. Look at last year.. Josh Hamilton won it.. I think miguel cabrera should have.. And if the tigers had a better year.. He might have. And votto won the national league.. Again.. Great stats.. But comparable to puljos and cargo's.. But reds made playoffs.. Rockies and cards didn't. So winning is a factor. I just don't think he will do it.